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Sat 29 Aug · 12:30

Derby vs Swansea prediction

Round
Regular Season - 3
Venue
Pride Park, Derby
Referee
David Webb, England
Form

Recent form

Derby
22Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -5 goal difference

Swansea
68Strong

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +4 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Both Teams to Score
Yes

BetGenius backs Yes (Both Teams to Score) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Derby County welcome Swansea City to Pride Park in round three of the Championship season, seeking their first league victory. The Rams sit 16th in the table with one point from their opening two fixtures, having drawn 2-2 at home to Cardiff after a 2-1 defeat at Charlton. Defensive vulnerabilities have been evident early on, with Derby conceding four goals in two matches while also dealing with injury absences including Sammie Szmodics, Matt Clarke, Danny Murkin, and Patrick Agyemang.

Swansea have enjoyed a solid start under their current campaign, collecting four points from their opening two games to sit ninth in the standings. Following an impressive 2-1 away victory at Stoke City, the Swans played out a disciplined 0-0 draw at home against Sheffield United. Despite missing Cameron Burgess and Goncalo Franco through injury, their defensive organisation has proved reliable, conceding just one goal across their two league outings.

Head-to-head encounters between the two clubs have historically been evenly matched, with four wins apiece and two draws across their last ten meetings. However, with Derby struggling to keep clean sheets and Swansea demonstrating effective form on the road, the visitors appear well positioned to take positive value from this clash.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Derby have conceded exactly two goals in both of their Championship matches this season (2-1 loss at Charlton, 2-2 draw with Cardiff).
  2. Swansea are unbeaten through two league rounds (W1, D1), notably winning 2-1 away at Stoke City.
  3. Derby are contending with multiple fitness issues, with Sammie Szmodics, Matt Clarke, Danny Murkin, and Patrick Agyemang all sidelined.
  4. Derby have seen both teams score in each of their last four matches across all competitions.
  5. The 10-game head-to-head record is balanced at four wins each and two draws, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Availability

Team news

Derby

  • P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
  • M. ClarkeCalf Injury
  • C. ForsythKnee Injury
  • S. LangasInjury
  • D. MurkinHamstring Injury
  • C. TaylorInjury
  • J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury
  • E. CashinInactive
  • M. JohnstonInactive

Swansea

  • C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
  • J. KeyMuscle Injury
  • RonaldHamstring Injury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Derby at homeSwansea away
6
Played
5
0-2-4
W-D-L
4-0-1
0.7
Scored /game
1.8
1.7
Conceded /game
1
0%
Clean sheets
40%
50%
Failed to score
0%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 2.5 goals per game (Derby at home plus Swansea away).

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1SwanseaPromotion - Premier League11+823
2West HamPromotion - Premier League11+1822
3MiddlesbroughPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)11+622
4BirminghamPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)11+920
20Watford11-911
21Norwich11-49
22BurnleyRelegation - League One11-58
23DerbyRelegation - League One11-116
24PrestonRelegation - League One11-154
History

Head-to-head

4
Derby
1
Draws
5
Swansea

Swansea have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game, 60% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-08-29Derby0-3Swansea
  • 2026-02-14Derby2-0Swansea
  • 2025-11-25Swansea1-2Derby
  • 2025-04-05Swansea1-0Derby
  • 2024-11-27Derby1-2Swansea
BetGenius

Our record in Championship

63%126 won from 199 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

3 published markets

Combo BetLOST
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%
Confidence

Derby have found the net in both of their Championship fixtures this season (scoring three goals in total) but have also conceded two goals in each match without keeping a clean sheet. With Derby's last four matches across all competitions seeing both teams find the net, and Swansea having already scored two on the road at Stoke, both sides possess strong pathways to get on the scoresheet.

Combo BetWON
Double Chance
Swansea or Draw
74%
Confidence

Swansea enter this fixture in positive league form, taking four points from their opening two fixtures including a 2-1 away win at Stoke City. In contrast, Derby have yet to secure a win, picking up one point from two matches while conceding two goals in each game. Backing Swansea in the double chance market provides a solid hedge against Derby's defensive instability and current injury list.

FeaturedLOST
Combo Bet
Swansea or Draw + BTTS Yes
68%
Both must land · no better than

Swansea or Draw — 74% confidence

Swansea enter this fixture in positive league form, taking four points from their opening two fixtures including a 2-1 away win at Stoke City. In contrast, Derby have yet to secure a win, picking up one point from two matches while conceding two goals in each game. Backing Swansea in the double chance market provides a solid hedge against Derby's defensive instability and current injury list.

Yes — 68% confidence

Derby have found the net in both of their Championship fixtures this season (scoring three goals in total) but have also conceded two goals in each match without keeping a clean sheet. With Derby's last four matches across all competitions seeing both teams find the net, and Swansea having already scored two on the road at Stoke, both sides possess strong pathways to get on the scoresheet.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and both teams to score), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

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Published August 27, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.