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Fri 11 Sept · 19:00

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II prediction

Follow AZ AlkmaarFollow Willem IIFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 6
Venue
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Referee
Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar
70Strong

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +4 goal difference

Willem II
12Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-1D-4L · -8 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Over 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

75%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

League leaders AZ Alkmaar host sixteenth-placed Willem II, aiming to extend their flawless start to the Eredivisie campaign. AZ have collected fifteen points from five matches, scoring sixteen times while demonstrating consistent offensive output across both home and away fixtures.

Willem II travel north in search of their first league win of the season after recording one draw and three defeats in their opening four matches. Their defensive record has been problematic, allowing thirteen goals already, including four in their only away outing against GO Ahead Eagles.

AZ Alkmaar will be without D. Kasius, S. Resink, and K. Smit through injury, while Willem II also contend with several absences including A. Culum, T. Didillon Hodl, A. Lachkar, J. Schuurman, and A. Zarrouk. Given the clear gap in current form and scoring reliability, the hosts enter this fixture in a commanding position.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. AZ Alkmaar lead the league with a maximum fifteen points from five matches, scoring sixteen goals.
  2. Willem II are winless in four league matches, conceding thirteen goals at an average of 3.3 per game.
  3. AZ Alkmaar have scored at least two goals in all five of their league matches this season.
  4. Historical meetings between the clubs average 3.6 goals per game, with seven of the last ten producing over 2.5 goals.
  5. Willem II conceded four goals in their only away league fixture of the campaign.
Availability

Team news

AZ Alkmaar

  • J. HornkampInjury
  • S. ResinkKnee Injury
  • K. SmitInjury
  • J. ClasieKnock

Willem II

  • A. CulumFoot Injury
  • T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
  • J. HoogmaKnee Injury
  • A. LachkarGroin Injury
  • W. van der SteenInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

AZ Alkmaar at homeWillem II away
4
Played
5
3-1-0
W-D-L
0-1-4
2.3
Scored /game
1.2
0.8
Conceded /game
3.2
—
Clean sheets
0%
—
Failed to score
0%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
80%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 3.5 goals per game (AZ Alkmaar at home plus Willem II away).

Players

Key players this season

AZ Alkmaar

  • M. Chávez3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
1FeyenoordPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+2123
2AZ AlkmaarPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)9+1020
3PSV EindhovenPromotion - Europa League (Qualification)9+1519
4AjaxPromotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)9+1518
5TwentePromotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)9+717
15PEC Zwolle9-127
16TelstarEredivisie (Relegation)9-86
17ADO Den HaagRelegation - Eerste Divisie9-96
18Willem IIRelegation - Eerste Divisie9-172
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
Willem II

AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.6 goals a game, both teams scored in 80% of them.

  • 2025-02-02Willem II0-2AZ Alkmaar
  • 2024-11-10AZ Alkmaar1-2Willem II
  • 2022-03-20Willem II2-2AZ Alkmaar
  • 2021-12-18AZ Alkmaar4-1Willem II
  • 2021-04-03Willem II0-1AZ Alkmaar
BetGenius

Our record in Eredivisie

73%59 won from 81 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

2 published markets

FeaturedLOST
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
75%
Confidence

Fixtures involving both sides have produced substantial goal tallies throughout the early stages of the season. AZ Alkmaar have scored seven goals in two home games, averaging 3.5 goals scored per match on their own pitch. Willem II have conceded 3.3 goals per game overall and shipped four goals in their lone away league match. Across their last ten head-to-head encounters, seven matches produced over 2.5 goals with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

FeaturedLOST
Match Winner
AZ Alkmaar to win
78%
Confidence

AZ Alkmaar sit top of the Eredivisie with a perfect record of five wins from five matches, scoring sixteen goals and conceding five. In contrast, Willem II are sixteenth in the table without a win in four league matches, having conceded thirteen goals in that span. AZ Alkmaar have scored at least two goals in every fixture so far, while Willem II concede an average of 3.3 goals per game, giving the home side a distinct performance edge.

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Published September 9, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.