Conference League predictions

Over 2.5 Goals — 70% confidence

Thun’s cup average of one goal against per game combined with Hajduk’s 3.2 goals per game suggests the match will produce more than 2.5 goals in total.

HNK Hajduk Split or Draw — 73% confidence

Hajduk Split’s superior recent form and high scoring rate make a defeat unlikely. Even if they fail to win, a draw is plausible, giving the away side at least a point.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Lugano have a superior recent record, four wins in five and a higher goals‑for average both overall and away. Getafe’s injury list removes several key players, limiting their attacking options. Getafe have only one home game in the data, a 3‑1 win, but overall their scoring has been inconsistent. Lugano’s defensive record at home is solid, though they concede less away, suggesting they can at least hold a draw. The combination of Lugano’s form and Getafe’s injuries supports a double‑chance for the visitors, and the goal averages indicate the match will exceed 2.5 goals.

Panathinaikos’ superior win‑loss record, higher goals‑for average and unbeaten streak suggest they are likely to avoid defeat in Almaty. Kairat’s recent big home win provides some threat, but the away side’s consistency makes a draw or win the most probable outcome. The combined scoring rates of both teams point to a match with at least three goals, supporting an over‑2.5 call.

Atalanta have avoided defeat in both of their Conference League fixtures, keeping two clean sheets and conceding zero goals across 180 minutes of European action. While Pafos have also started the competition solidly with a win and a draw, their away trip produced a 1-1 stalemate and Atalanta boast recent home form highlighted by a 3-1 win over Venezia. Backing the hosts to either win or draw covers the likelihood of a tight contest while respecting Atalanta's superior defensive record in the tournament.

Twente hold a formidable home record recently, having won four consecutive home fixtures and averaging three goals scored per home match. With M. Pjaca already tallying four goals alongside creative support from D. Weidmann and S. Ørjasæter, the hosts possess ample firepower. FC Thun have conceded four goals in two of their last four fixtures, leaving them vulnerable on the road, though their ability to find the net makes backing Twente to avoid defeat a well-measured selection alongside an expectation of at least three total goals.

FC Copenhagen have been dominant on their own ground, taking three victories from three home games with an average of 3.7 goals scored per match. While they face squad adjustments with M. Mattsson sidelined by a knee injury and M. Madsen absent through illness, their attacking options remain sharp through Robert and Andreas Cornelius. SC Braga have maintained an unblemished defensive record with zero goals conceded across six cup fixtures, but their away attack has managed only one goal across three away trips. Given Braga's limited attacking threat on the road and Copenhagen's solid home record, Copenhagen have strong prospects of avoiding defeat in a closely contested tie.

Brann have demonstrated reliable scoring power on home soil in this tournament, averaging 2.0 goals scored per match and winning two of their three fixtures. Although their lack of clean sheets and recent defensive slip-ups, combined with the absence of suspended defender K. M. Ingason, suggest Lincoln Red Imps could find opportunities, Brann have enough offensive firepower to control proceedings. Backing Brann on double chance covers both a home win and a shared result while guarding against defensive lapses.

SC Freiburg enter this cup clash in strong form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with four victories. They have averaged four goals per home game in the tournament and netted at least twice in four of their previous five fixtures across all competitions. FK Jablonec have found road fixtures difficult in Europe, suffering two defeats in three away matches while conceding five goals. While Jablonec have shown solid defensive organisation in recent domestic outings, Freiburg's superior scoring power makes them well placed to secure at least a point on home soil.

Brighton’s unbeaten run, four‑goal home average and clean‑sheet record outweigh Kauno’s decent away form. Even with multiple injuries, Brighton’s quality and home advantage give them a clear edge, making a home win the most probable single outcome.

Hearts have a good home scoring record (2‑5 goals in two recent home matches) and have not been beaten recently, while Nordsjaelland’s away form is uneven and they are missing two players. The combination of Hearts’ home advantage and Nordsjaelland’s defensive solidity suggests a draw or a home win is the most probable outcome. At the same time, both sides have shown the ability to find the net, making an over‑2.5 goal total realistic.

FC Iberia 1999 have won four of their last five games and concede only 0.8 goals per match, while St. Truiden have struggled, losing four of five and conceding over two goals per game. The away side therefore appears more likely to avoid defeat. Both teams combined average about three goals per game, supporting an over‑2.5 total.

Riga enter this match unbeaten in six competitive fixtures, winning four and drawing two. At home, they have won all three recorded fixtures with eight goals scored and three conceded. Kairat Almaty have suffered two defeats in their last four matches, including a 1-0 away defeat to FC Astana, making a home win or draw a well-supported outcome.

FC Midtjylland bring formidable attacking form into this fixture, having scored eleven goals across four competition matches with an average of 2.8 goals per game. Their recent schedule also includes impressive home victories over Brondby and FC Copenhagen. However, the Danish side must navigate notable absences with suspensions to R. Kristensen and A. Ndiaye, alongside injuries to M. Erlic, M. Gogorza, and Junior Brumado. Egnatia have won four of their last five matches and have scored in every one of those fixtures, suggesting they have the sharpness to compete firmly at home. Backing Midtjylland to win or draw covers the possibility of a competitive stalemate while respecting their superior offensive quality.

KuPS have struggled in front of goal recently, failing to score in consecutive 1-0 losses against Inter Turku and AC Oulu. Every one of their last five matches in all competitions has finished with two goals or fewer, indicating a defensive setup that prioritises organisation over expansive play. Trabzonspor have demonstrated higher offensive output with recent 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0 victories, while keeping clean sheets in all three of those wins. Despite missing Batagov, Malinovskyi, and Yokuslu through knee injuries, Trabzonspor possess the quality to control the flow and secure at least a point away from home.

Monaco hold a significant quality advantage and enter this tie on a five-match unbeaten streak across all competitions, including wins over Lens and Paris Saint Germain. CSKA Sofia are in strong domestic form with four wins from their last five, which makes an outright away victory less straightforward. Monaco have scored in all of their recent matches, whilst CSKA Sofia have netted fourteen times in five games, pointing toward a competitive encounter where the visitors are well positioned to take at least a point.

Gent have established high defensive consistency, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals per match and keeping four clean sheets across six games. They enter this fixture on a four-game winning streak in their last five outings, having defeated Zulte Waregem, Standard Liege, Cercle Brugge, and OH Leuven. Aarhus have shown scoring ability in their domestic run, but their travel is hampered by missing personnel, including injuries to O. Haugstrup, T. Kristjansson, G. Links, N. Poulsen, and K. Yakob. With Gent rarely conceding multiple goals and Aarhus navigating a depleted squad, the hosts hold an advantage to secure at least a point in what profiles as a tight contest.

Panathinaikos have avoided defeat in five of their last six matches, averaging 1.8 goals per game overall and scoring in all their recorded home outings. Borac Banja Luka have proven dangerous in attack with 2.7 goals per away match, but they also concede an average of two goals per game on their travels. Given the single previous head-to-head meeting ended in a 1-1 stalemate, Panathinaikos hold the edge to secure at least a point at home.