Atalanta

Atalanta have won three of their four home league fixtures, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game on home soil. While Frosinone sit higher in the table thanks to the scoring exploits of A. Raimondo, their away record of one win, one draw, and one loss shows vulnerability against higher-calibre hosts, as seen in their 3-0 loss at Napoli. Historical head-to-head meetings at this venue also heavily lean towards Atalanta, who have won all three home encounters. Backing Atalanta to win or draw covers the threat posed by Frosinone's attack while acknowledging Atalanta's domestic home strength.

AC Milan have been remarkably solid in league play, remaining unbeaten across six rounds and maintaining a perfect defensive record at home with two clean sheets from two matches. In contrast, Atalanta have failed to collect a single point on the road in Serie A, losing both away fixtures while scoring just once and conceding four times. While Atalanta have maintained an impressive recent record against Milan, the combination of Milan's defensive record at San Siro and Atalanta's travel difficulties gives the home side a notable edge to at least secure a point.

Atalanta have avoided defeat in both of their Conference League fixtures, keeping two clean sheets and conceding zero goals across 180 minutes of European action. While Pafos have also started the competition solidly with a win and a draw, their away trip produced a 1-1 stalemate and Atalanta boast recent home form highlighted by a 3-1 win over Venezia. Backing the hosts to either win or draw covers the likelihood of a tight contest while respecting Atalanta's superior defensive record in the tournament.

Atalanta or Draw — 78% confidence

Venezia have lost all five of their Serie A matches this season, leaving them with zero points and a goal difference of minus nine. Atalanta have collected both of their league victories at home, where they average 1.3 goals scored per match compared to Venezia conceding 2.5 goals per away fixture. Backing Atalanta to win or draw covers the rare possibility of a stalemate, reminiscent of their 0-0 draw in their most recent meeting in March 2025, while reflecting Venezia's lack of winning form.

Atalanta Over 1.5 Goals — 72% confidence

Venezia have conceded at least two goals in every single league match this season, shipping two against Lazio, four against Fiorentina, three against Frosinone, two against Udinese, and two against AC Milan. Their overall concession rate stands at 2.6 goals per game. With Atalanta scoring four goals in three home outings and having scored multiple goals in three of the last five head-to-head meetings, the home side has a strong statistical pathway to finding the net multiple times.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and team total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Venezia have conceded at least two goals in every single league match this season, shipping two against Lazio, four against Fiorentina, three against Frosinone, two against Udinese, and two against AC Milan. Their overall concession rate stands at 2.6 goals per game. With Atalanta scoring four goals in three home outings and having scored multiple goals in three of the last five head-to-head meetings, the home side has a strong statistical pathway to finding the net multiple times.

Venezia have lost all five of their Serie A matches this season, leaving them with zero points and a goal difference of minus nine. Atalanta have collected both of their league victories at home, where they average 1.3 goals scored per match compared to Venezia conceding 2.5 goals per away fixture. Backing Atalanta to win or draw covers the rare possibility of a stalemate, reminiscent of their 0-0 draw in their most recent meeting in March 2025, while reflecting Venezia's lack of winning form.

Venezia have seen at least two goals scored in all five of their league matches this season, conceding 13 times at a rate of 2.6 goals against per game. Atalanta have also seen two or more goals in each of their last three fixtures, with defensive vulnerabilities highlighted by conceding two goals against Juventus, Cagliari, and AS Roma.

While two goals looks well supported by both teams' conceding records, pushing the line to over 2.5 goals is not sufficiently justified. Atalanta have scored only five goals across five matches and have not scored more than once in any of their last five outings. Venezia have failed to score in three of their five games, averaging just 0.8 goals per match. Because Atalanta have lacked high-volume scoring punch and Venezia often struggle to get on the scoresheet, over 1.5 goals fits the underlying scoring rates while over 2.5 asks too much of two attacks that have operated at modest outputs.

Juventus or Draw — 71% confidence

Juventus remain undefeated at home in Serie A this season with a 2-0 win over Parma and a 1-1 draw against AC Milan, conceding just one goal across those two fixtures. Atalanta have lost their sole away league match to date, a 2-1 defeat at AS Roma. Although the hosts are dealing with a lengthy injury list, their solid defensive record at home combined with a high historical frequency of draws in this matchup makes covering the home win or draw a well-supported outcome.

Under 2.5 Goals — 66% confidence

Across the last ten head-to-head meetings between Juventus and Atalanta, the goal average stands at exactly 2.0 per match, with 60 percent of those fixtures staying under 2.5 goals. Furthermore, Juventus have conceded an average of only 0.5 goals per match at home this campaign, while Atalanta have averaged 1.0 goal scored per away match in the league.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Across the last ten head-to-head meetings between Juventus and Atalanta, the goal average stands at exactly 2.0 per match, with 60 percent of those fixtures staying under 2.5 goals. Furthermore, Juventus have conceded an average of only 0.5 goals per match at home this campaign, while Atalanta have averaged 1.0 goal scored per away match in the league.

Juventus remain undefeated at home in Serie A this season with a 2-0 win over Parma and a 1-1 draw against AC Milan, conceding just one goal across those two fixtures. Atalanta have lost their sole away league match to date, a 2-1 defeat at AS Roma. Although the hosts are dealing with a lengthy injury list, their solid defensive record at home combined with a high historical frequency of draws in this matchup makes covering the home win or draw a well-supported outcome.

Atalanta have a commanding head-to-head record against AS Roma, winning six of the last ten meetings between the sides and losing only twice. Furthermore, Atalanta have avoided defeat in four of their last five trips to the Stadio Olimpico, recording two wins and two draws. Roma are missing influential personnel in Lorenzo Pellegrini and Evan Ndicka, which diminishes their midfield control and defensive depth. Atalanta enter this fixture in solid form having conceded just once in their opening two league matches, providing them with a strong foundation to secure at least a point.

Atalanta enter this clash in positive form after securing a 2-1 home win against Sassuolo in their season opener. In contrast, Bologna are on a three-match losing streak across all fixtures and failed to score in their 1-0 opening defeat against Lazio. While Bologna have won five of the last ten meetings between the teams, Atalanta have demonstrated stronger early-season rhythm. Given that 80 percent of the past ten head-to-head fixtures stayed below 2.5 goals and both teams scored in only 30 percent of those games, a closely contested matchup favoring the home side to earn at least a point represents the most probable scenario.

The previous meeting between these two sides on 20 August 2026 concluded in a 0-0 draw, showcasing a disciplined defensive approach from Hapoel Tel Aviv. While Atalanta possess quality across the squad, injuries to key players including I. Hien and K. Sulemana reduce their offensive edge away from home. Backing Atalanta or Draw alongside Under 2.5 goals provides a well-calibrated position reflecting both sides' defensive records.

Atalanta have won four of their last five home head-to-head encounters against Sassuolo. In contrast, Sassuolo arrive heavily depleted by injuries to key personnel including Domenico Berardi and Andrea Pinamonti, while having conceded nine goals across their last five matches.