Fleetwood Town

Cheltenham’s recent dip and lack of clean sheets are offset by home advantage and a slight edge in head‑to‑head home records (3‑2‑0). Fleetwood’s defensive solidity and better recent form suggest they can avoid defeat as well. The low‑scoring trend in their meetings (30% over 2.5) supports a conservative outlook, making a home‑or‑draw double chance the safest pick with an estimated 65% probability.

Sheffield Utd have remained unbeaten across their last three away fixtures, winning twice and drawing once while scoring six goals in that stretch. They have found the net in all five of their most recent matches across all competitions. Although Fleetwood Town are in solid form and unbeaten in five games, Sheffield Utd have shown reliable output on the road. Backing the visitors to win or draw covers both an away victory and a level scoreline at full-time.

Fleetwood Town have demonstrated defensive stability with three consecutive clean sheets and an unbeaten three-match run. Shrewsbury arrive winless in five games having conceded in every one of those fixtures. Backing Fleetwood Town on the double chance provides strong probabilistic coverage in this cup tie.