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Sun 6 Sept · 18:00

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia prediction

Follow Vitória SC Follow Casa Pia Follow this match

Round: Regular Season - 5
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes
Referee: Gustavo Correia, Portugal

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Vitória SC

54Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -1 goal difference

Casa Pia

52Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Under 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 80% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

80%

Confidence

Strong

Preview

Match preview

Vitória SC welcome bottom-placed Casa Pia to Guimarães in round 5 of the Primeira Liga. The hosts have three points from their opening fixtures, highlighted by a 1-0 home victory against Nacional and competitive outings despite narrow defeats to Sporting CP and SC Braga.

Casa Pia enter this contest enduring a difficult start to the campaign, having lost all four of their league matches without scoring a single goal. With 11 goals conceded and zero points on the board, the visitors sit 18th in the standings and face an uphill battle to establish offensive rhythm.

Head-to-head encounters between these two sides have historically been tight and low-scoring affairs. Across their nine recorded meetings, matches have never exceeded two goals, generating an average of just 0.89 goals per fixture. With Casa Pia struggling for goals and Vitória SC keeping things tight at home, another low-scoring game is likely.

Analysis

Key factors

All nine historical meetings between Vitória SC and Casa Pia have stayed under 2.5 goals, averaging 0.89 goals per match.
Casa Pia have failed to score in all four of their Primeira Liga fixtures this season.
Vitória SC have conceded just one goal across their two home league matches this campaign.
Casa Pia have lost all four league fixtures and sit bottom of the standings with zero points.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Vitória SC at homeCasa Pia away

Played

1-2-1

W-D-L

1-1-2

0.5

Scored /game

0.5

Conceded /game

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

40%

BTTS (last 5)

40%

20%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

40%

Combined scoring rate: 1 goals per game (Vitória SC at home plus Casa Pia away).

Players

Key players this season

Vitória SC

Miguel Nogueira3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	-1	11
10	Estrela	8	-1	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	-9	7
16	NacionalLiga Portugal (Relegation)	8	-9	4
17	Casa PiaRelegation - Liga Portugal 2	8	-14	4
18	EstorilRelegation - Liga Portugal 2	8	-8	2

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

2
Vitória SC: 4
Draws: 3
Casa Pia

Casa Pia have won 3 of the last 9 meetings, averaging 0.9 goals a game, only 0% went over 2.5.

2026-05-11Vitória SC0-1Casa Pia
2025-12-28Casa Pia0-0Vitória SC
2025-03-01Vitória SC1-0Casa Pia
2024-09-28Casa Pia1-1Vitória SC
2024-02-24Vitória SC0-2Casa Pia

BetGenius

Our record in Primeira Liga

70%49 won from 70 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals

80%

Confidence

Under 2.5 total goals is strongly supported by both recent form and head-to-head metrics. Casa Pia have failed to score across all four of their Primeira Liga matches this season, averaging 0 goals scored and conceding 1.5 per game away from home. Vitória SC have maintained compact scorelines at home, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match on their own turf. Furthermore, none of the nine previous meetings between these two clubs have produced three or more goals, with the head-to-head average sitting at just 0.89 goals per match.

Explore

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

Vitória SC

Table context

Head-to-head

Our record in Primeira Liga

1 published market

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