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Sat 5 Sept · 15:00

Vaprus vs Nõmme United prediction

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Round: Regular Season - 26
Venue: Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Referee: J. Jakobson

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Vaprus

35Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -5 goal difference

Nõmme United

42Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Over 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

76%

Confidence

Strong

Preview

Match preview

Vaprus host Nomme United in Meistriliiga action at the Parnu Rannastaadion, just three days after the two sides met in a dramatic five-goal cup clash that ended 3-2 in Nomme United's favour. Only three points separate the teams in the league standings, with Vaprus sitting in seventh on 28 points and Nomme United in eighth on 25 points, right above the relegation playoff position.

Vaprus have been steady in front of goal at home, averaging 1.7 goals scored per game across 12 home matches. However, defensive frailties have also seen them concede at an identical rate of 1.7 goals per home outing, contributing to a sequence of high-scoring scorelines across recent weeks.

Nomme United have been one of the most open sides in the division, scoring 42 goals while conceding 60 in their 25 league fixtures. Having failed to record a single clean sheet across the entire league campaign, their fixtures consistently feature plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch.

Analysis

Key factors

Nomme United have recorded zero clean sheets in 25 league matches this season, conceding 60 goals.
The two sides met three days prior to this fixture in the cup, producing a 3-2 scoreline.
Across their last 10 head-to-head meetings, fixtures have averaged 4.3 goals per match with 80 percent surpassing 2.5 goals.
Vaprus average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per match across their 12 home league fixtures.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Vaprus at homeNõmme United away

Played

7-2-5

W-D-L

5-1-8

1.7

Scored /game

1.3

1.6

Conceded /game

2.5

29%

Clean sheets

14%

Failed to score

21%

40%

BTTS (last 5)

80%

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

80%

Combined scoring rate: 3 goals per game (Vaprus at home plus Nõmme United away).

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	-5	50
6	Laagri	33	0	47
7	Vaprus	33	-22	36
8	Kuressaare	32	-17	35
9	Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga (Relegation)	33	-22	34
10	Trans NarvaRelegation - Esiliiga	33	-49	20

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

6
Vaprus: 0
Draws: 4
Nõmme United

Vaprus have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 4.1 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.

2026-09-05Vaprus1-0Nõmme United
2026-09-02Nõmme United3-2Vaprus
2026-05-02Vaprus2-3Nõmme United
2026-03-14Nõmme United7-1Vaprus
2025-02-12Vaprus7-0Nõmme United

BetGenius

Our record in Meistriliiga

60%29 won from 48 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals

76%

Confidence

Recent encounters between these two clubs have produced exceptionally high goal tallies, including 3-2 and 7-1 scorelines in 2026 league meetings, as well as a 3-2 cup encounter played on September 2. Nomme United have conceded 60 goals in 25 league matches with zero clean sheets recorded, allowing an average of 2.8 goals per match away from home. Vaprus also average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per home match, pointing towards another open contest that clears the 2.5 goal line.

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