Real Madrid have won all four home matches in La Liga this season, averaging 3.3 goals scored per game and only 0.5 conceded. Their historical head-to-head advantage is substantial, taking nine victories and one draw from their last ten meetings with Sevilla, including five straight home wins. However, Sevilla are undefeated on the road in four league outings with two wins and two draws, averaging two goals scored per away game. With Real Madrid missing Vinicius Junior through suspension alongside injuries to Eder Militao and Rodrygo, backing the home side on the double chance covers the possibility of a competitive draw while keeping the hosts favoured. Real Madrid's scoring average at home combined with Sevilla finding the net in all four away games supports over 2.5 goals.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
- Round
- Regular Season - 9
- Venue
- Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
- Referee
- Mateo Busquets Ferrer
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +7 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -2 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Real Madrid or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
Real Madrid welcome Sevilla to the Santiago Bernabeu sitting fourth in La Liga with 18 points from their opening eight fixtures. The hosts have established commanding form at home, winning all four of their league matches on domestic soil with 13 goals scored and just two conceded. They enter this clash having won three straight matches in all competitions, though they must adjust to the suspension of Vinicius Junior alongside defensive and attacking injuries.
Sevilla sit directly behind them in fifth position on 14 points, having produced four wins, two draws, and two defeats. Their away form has been particularly resilient, as they remain unbeaten across four league matches on the road with two wins and two draws. Sevilla have scored eight goals away from home while conceding five, showing consistent offensive output despite dealing with absences such as I. Romero to suspension.
Head-to-head history heavily leans toward the capital club, with Real Madrid victorious in nine of the last ten meetings across all venues, alongside one draw. While Real Madrid have won all five recent home meetings against Sevilla, the visitors' ability to score on their travels and Madrid's selection absences make this a closely contested fixture.
Key factors
- Real Madrid boast a 100 percent home record in La Liga this season with four wins from four matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding two.
- Sevilla are unbeaten in four away league fixtures, recording two wins, two draws, and eight goals scored.
- Real Madrid have dominated the recent rivalry, winning nine and drawing one of the last ten head-to-head encounters.
- Kylian Mbappe leads the Real Madrid attack with seven league goals, though regular contributor Vinicius Junior misses out through suspension.
- Sevilla have conceded 1.3 goals per game on their travels while failing to keep a clean sheet in three of their four away matches.
Team news
Real Madrid
- R. AsencioBroken Leg
- RodrygoKnee Injury
- F. MendyHip Injury
- Vinicius JuniorRed Card
Sevilla
- J. GuridiMuscle Injury
- MarcaoMuscle Injury
- M. SierraShoulder Injury
- G. KochorashviliInjury
- I. RomeroRed Card
Team news last updated Oct 18 (6 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 5.4 goals per game (Real Madrid at home plus Sevilla away).
Key players this season
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé9G
- J. Bellingham3A
- Vinícius Júnior3A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BarcelonaPromotion - Champions League (League phase) | 9 | +30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico MadridPromotion - Champions League (League phase) | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real MadridPromotion - Champions League (League phase) | 9 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (League phase) | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real SociedadPromotion - Europa League (League phase) | 9 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | SevillaPromotion - Conference League (Qualification) | 9 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | +1 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 9
- Real Madrid
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Sevilla
Real Madrid have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.1 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.
- 2026-10-18Real Madrid4-1Sevilla
- 2026-05-17Sevilla0-1Real Madrid
- 2025-12-20Real Madrid2-0Sevilla
- 2025-05-18Sevilla0-2Real Madrid
- 2024-12-22Real Madrid4-2Sevilla
Our record in La Liga
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.1 published market
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Published October 17, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.