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Sat 19 Sept · 15:00

Nõmme United vs Paide prediction

Follow Nõmme UnitedFollow PaideFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 29
Referee
M. Pukk

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Nõmme United
42Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -1 goal difference

Paide
60Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Paide or Draw

BetGenius backs Paide or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Nõmme United host Paide at home in round 29 of the Meistriliiga campaign, with both sides carrying contrasting objectives into the final stretch of the league season. The hosts sit eighth in the standings on 28 points, having suffered 17 defeats across their 27 fixtures, though their matches remain lively with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded in 13 home encounters.

Paide travel sitting in fourth place with 45 points, maintaining pressure near the European qualification places. They have proven resilient on their travels, recording six wins and five draws from 14 away matches while scoring 25 goals on the road.

Historical meetings heavily favor the visitors, who have won all eight previous head-to-head clashes between the two clubs. With Nõmme United yet to keep a clean sheet across the entire league campaign, Paide will aim to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of a home side that concedes an average of 2.1 goals per game on their own ground.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Paide have won all eight historical meetings against Nõmme United, including three league victories in 2026.
  2. Nõmme United have failed to record a clean sheet in all 27 Meistriliiga matches this season, conceding 62 goals.
  3. Paide have avoided defeat in 11 of their 14 away league fixtures this season, collecting six wins and five draws.
  4. Nõmme United have suffered nine defeats in 13 home league matches while conceding an average of 2.1 goals per home game.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Nõmme United at homePaide away
14
Played
14
4-0-10
W-D-L
6-5-3
2
Scored /game
1.8
2.1
Conceded /game
1.5
0%
Clean sheets
14%
14%
Failed to score
7%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 3.8 goals per game (Nõmme United at home plus Paide away).

Players

Key players this season

Paide

  • Daniel Cabral5G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
1FC Levadia TallinnPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)32+6581
2Flora TallinnPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)33+1658
3PaidePromotion - Conference League (Qualification)32+1357
4Kalju Nomme32+2151
5Tammeka33-550
6Laagri33047
7Vaprus33-2236
8Kuressaare32-1735
9Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga (Relegation)33-2234
10Trans NarvaRelegation - Esiliiga33-4920
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
0
Nõmme United
0
Draws
9
Paide

Paide have won 9 of the last 9 meetings, averaging 4.4 goals a game, both teams scored in 67% of them.

  • 2026-09-19Nõmme United1-3Paide
  • 2026-08-23Paide4-1Nõmme United
  • 2026-05-10Nõmme United2-3Paide
  • 2026-04-08Paide3-1Nõmme United
  • 2024-11-03Nõmme United0-4Paide
BetGenius

Our record in Meistriliiga

60%29 won from 48 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Paide or Draw
78%
Confidence

Paide possess a flawless record against Nõmme United in official meetings, winning all eight previous encounters including three victories already in the 2026 campaign by 3-1, 3-2, and 4-1 scorelines. Paide have avoided defeat in 11 of their 14 away league fixtures, earning six wins and five draws. In contrast, Nõmme United have lost nine of their 13 home games and have not kept a single clean sheet across 27 league fixtures, conceding 62 goals in total. Backing the visitors to avoid defeat aligns well with the structural gap in points and head-to-head dominance while covering for potential away draws.

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FC Levadia TallinnFlora TallinnKalju NommeTammekaLaagriVaprus
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Published September 18, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.