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Sat 12 Sept · 15:30

Nacional vs Alverca prediction

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Round: Regular Season - 6
Venue: Estádio da Madeira, Funchal
Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Nacional

7Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-0D-5L · -10 goal difference

Alverca

59Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +3 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance

Nacional or Draw

BetGenius backs Nacional or Draw (Double Chance) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

74%

Confidence

Solid

Preview

Match preview

Nacional welcome Alverca to the Estadio da Madeira for round six of the Primeira Liga season, with both sides seeking to improve on difficult starts to the campaign. Nacional currently sit 12th in the table with four points from their opening five fixtures, having recorded one win, one draw, and three defeats.

Alverca find themselves in the relegation places in 17th position, still searching for their first league victory of the season. The visitors have drawn two and lost three of their first five matches, including consecutive away defeats against FC Porto and Sporting CP, leaving them with just two points and ten goals conceded.

Previous head-to-head encounters between the two clubs have been tightly contested affairs. Their two recorded meetings both finished in 1-0 victories for the respective home team, underscoring the value of home advantage in this fixture.

Analysis

Key factors

Alverca are winless in the league this season with two draws and three defeats from five matches.
Alverca have lost both away fixtures, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per match on the road.
Nacional average two goals scored per match at home across their two fixtures played in Madeira.
The two previous head-to-head meetings each ended in a 1-0 victory for the home side.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Nacional at homeAlverca away

Played

1-0-3

W-D-L

2-0-2

1.3

Scored /game

2.5

Conceded /game

1.8

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

40%

BTTS (last 5)

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

60%

Combined scoring rate: 3.3 goals per game (Nacional at home plus Alverca away).

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
5	AroucaPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)	8	+4	14
6	GIL Vicente	8	+2	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	-1	11
10	Estrela	8	-1	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
13	Maritimo	9	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	-9	7
16	NacionalLiga Portugal (Relegation)	8	-9	4
17	Casa PiaRelegation - Liga Portugal 2	8	-14	4
18	EstorilRelegation - Liga Portugal 2	8	-8	2

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

1
Nacional: 0
Draws: 1
Alverca

the last 2 meetings are split 1-1 with 0 drawn.

2026-04-18Nacional1-0Alverca
2025-12-07Alverca1-0Nacional

BetGenius

Our record in Primeira Liga

70%49 won from 70 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST

Double Chance

Nacional or Draw

74%

Confidence

Nacional have shown greater offensive productivity at home, scoring four goals across two home fixtures and claiming a 2-0 victory against Estoril. In contrast, Alverca have struggled on their travels, losing both away games while conceding five goals and scoring only once. While Nacional have lost three straight matches against difficult opposition, Alverca remain winless in five league outings this season. The combination of home advantage and Alverca defensive vulnerabilities makes Nacional well placed to secure at least a point.

Explore

Nacional vs Alverca prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Statistical comparison

Table context

Head-to-head

Our record in Primeira Liga

1 published market

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