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- Round
- League A - 4
- Venue
- Stade de France, Paris
- Referee
- Nick Walsh
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -2 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +6 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Under 2.5 Goals + France or Draw (Combo Bet) at 72% confidence — a solid call.
Match preview
France host Belgium in League A of the UEFA Nations League sitting top of their group with seven points from three matches. Didier Deschamps' side have built their campaign on defensive solidity, winning both of their recorded Nations League fixtures by a 1-0 scoreline, including an away victory against Belgium in late September.
Belgium occupy second place with six points after three games, having won twice and lost once. Domenico Tedesco's side bounced back from their home defeat against France with strong results elsewhere, but breaking down the French backline has repeatedly proven problematic in recent meetings.
Historical head-to-head records heavily favour the hosts, with France winning all six encounters between the nations dating back to 2018. With France yet to concede a goal in the competition and Belgium missing key personnel including Amadou Onana, the hosts hold the upper hand in a matchup that routinely produces tight, low-scoring contests.
Team news
France
- W. SalibaBack Bruise
Team news last updated Jul 18 (98 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.
Belgium
- A. OnanaCruciate Ligament Rupture
- Z. DebastWound
Team news last updated Jul 10 (106 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.
Statistical comparison
Key players this season
France
- M. Olise4G · 2A
- R. Cherki2A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FrancePlay Offs: Quarter-finals | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | ItalyPlay Offs: Quarter-finals | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | BelgiumPossible Play-off | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | TürkiyePossible Play-off | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 6
- France
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Belgium
France have won 6 of the last 6 meetings, averaging 2.2 goals a game, only 33% went over 2.5.
- 2026-09-28Belgium0-1France
- 2024-10-14Belgium1-2France
- 2024-09-09France2-0Belgium
- 2024-07-01France1-0Belgium
- 2021-10-07Belgium2-3France
Our record in UEFA Nations League
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.5 published markets
Under 2.5 Goals — 72% confidence
Four of the last six meetings between France and Belgium have finished with under 2.5 goals, including four separate 1-0 scorelines. France have conceded zero goals across their Nations League fixtures while averaging exactly one goal scored per match. With Belgium having failed to breach the French defence in their most recent encounter on 28 September, another low-scoring affair is probable.
France or Draw — 78% confidence
France enter this clash in commanding form against their neighbours, having won all six head-to-head encounters across major tournaments and the Nations League. Les Bleus have kept clean sheets in both of their group matches so far, showing complete defensive control. Backing France to avoid defeat accounts for both their winning streak against Belgium and the possibility of a shared point between the top two sides in the group.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.
France enter this clash in commanding form against their neighbours, having won all six head-to-head encounters across major tournaments and the Nations League. Les Bleus have kept clean sheets in both of their group matches so far, showing complete defensive control. Backing France to avoid defeat accounts for both their winning streak against Belgium and the possibility of a shared point between the top two sides in the group.
Four of the last six meetings between France and Belgium have finished with under 2.5 goals, including four separate 1-0 scorelines. France have conceded zero goals across their Nations League fixtures while averaging exactly one goal scored per match. With Belgium having failed to breach the French defence in their most recent encounter on 28 September, another low-scoring affair is probable.
France have maintained a disciplined defensive record without conceding in their first two group fixtures, while Belgium have scored five goals across three matches in the competition. The absence of key defensive personnel such as William Saliba for France, alongside Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast for Belgium, creates vulnerability that attackers like Michael Olise and Charles De Ketelaere can exploit. While the tight nature of recent meetings and France's two 1-0 wins argue against reaching three goals for Over 2.5, a match total of at least two goals aligns well with the offensive quality and table context.
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Combo bet: Multi bets · How multi bets work
- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
- Total goals: Goals predictions · How goals markets settle · Total goals record
Our previous calls on this fixture
- Belgium 0-1 France2026-09-28
Published October 4, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

