Estrela have competed regularly against top-tier opposition, highlighted by a 2-1 victory over SC Braga and productive offensive showings in a 3-3 draw at Rio Ave and a 2-2 draw with Famalicao. Although they fell short in recent outings against Arouca and Academico Viseu, their overall baseline against strong opposition gives them a pronounced edge in quality.
Fazendense, by contrast, have struggled defensively in recent fixtures. They conceded five goals to FC Alverca II, three to Atletico Malveira, and two apiece against O Elvas and Mortagua, resulting in four defeats from their last five games. While their 6-1 cup win over Ginasio Figueirense demonstrated they can score at home, their defensive openness leaves them susceptible against stronger opponents. Backing Estrela on the double chance provides strong probability while guarding against cup volatility.