Cuiaba have lost only two of their 16 home matches this season, compiling seven wins and seven draws while conceding an average of only 0.6 goals per game. Avai have struggled heavily away from home, suffering 11 defeats in 16 road trips and allowing 1.7 goals per contest. Given Cuiaba's propensity for draws—having drawn 14 times overall—backing the home double chance accounts for both a home victory and a potential stalemate. Additionally, Cuiaba have never lost at home against Avai in three previous meetings.
- Round
- Regular Season - 33
- Venue
- Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba
- Referee
- Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho, Brazil
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +1 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -3 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Cuiaba or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
Cuiaba welcome relegation-threatened Avai to the Arena Pantanal in round 33 of Serie B. The hosts enter this fixture in 10th position with 47 points, anchored by one of the division's sturdiest home defensive records. In 16 home fixtures, Cuiaba have conceded just nine goals and recorded nine clean sheets, losing on only two occasions in front of their supporters.
Avai travel in difficult circumstances, sitting 17th in the table with 33 points and occupying a spot in the relegation zone. Their travel form has been an ongoing issue throughout the campaign, yielding 11 defeats from 16 away matches alongside 27 goals conceded. Although they secured a 2-1 home victory over Londrina in their previous outing, reproducing positive results on the road remains an uphill battle.
Head-to-head history also favours the hosts at this venue, where Cuiaba are unbeaten against Avai with two victories and one draw across three past encounters. With Cuiaba having won their last two home matches against Nautico Recife and Ponte Preta by aggregate score of 5-0, the balance of probabilities leans towards the home side controlling proceedings.
Key factors
- Cuiaba have avoided defeat in 14 of their 16 home league games, conceding only nine goals at home.
- Avai have lost 11 of their 16 away matches, conceding 27 goals on their travels.
- Cuiaba have kept nine clean sheets in 16 home matches this season.
- Cuiaba are unbeaten at home in head-to-head fixtures against Avai, with two wins and one draw.
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 2 goals per game (Cuiaba at home plus Avai away).
Key players this season
Avai
- Jean Lucas6A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | +8 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | -2 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 34 | +9 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 34 | +1 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | AvaiRelegation | 34 | -10 | 37 |
| 18 | LondrinaRelegation | 34 | -6 | 32 |
| 19 | America MineiroRelegation | 34 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte PretaRelegation | 34 | -55 | 14 |
Head-to-head
- 4
- Cuiaba
- 1
- Draws
- 3
- Avai
Cuiaba have won 4 of the last 8 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game, only 38% went over 2.5.
- 2026-10-11Cuiaba0-1Avai
- 2026-06-21Avai1-0Cuiaba
- 2025-08-10Avai2-0Cuiaba
- 2025-04-11Cuiaba2-2Avai
- 2022-10-27Cuiaba1-0Avai
Our record in Serie B
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.1 published market
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Teams around them in the table
Published October 11, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

