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Sun 11 Oct · 23:30

Bahia vs Mirassol prediction

Follow BahiaFollow MirassolFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 30
Venue
Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador
Referee
Ramon Abatti

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Bahia
36Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -3 goal difference

Mirassol
66Strong

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +7 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Bahia or Draw

BetGenius backs Bahia or Draw (Double Chance) at 77% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

77%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Bahia return to their home ground in Serie A looking to bounce back following consecutive narrow away defeats against Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense. Sitting sixth in the table with 46 points, Bahia have built a dependable record on familiar territory, suffering only two defeats across 14 home matches while scoring 22 goals.

Mirassol make the trip occupying 15th place on 33 points, positioned closely above the relegation positions. While the visitors have collected positive results in recent weeks, their broader away campaign has yielded just two victories from 14 outings, alongside 22 goals conceded and zero away clean sheets.

With Mirassol yet to record a shutout on their travels and Bahia failing to score in only one home league match all season, the hosts carry the stronger underlying numbers to control proceedings and take points from this contest.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Bahia have suffered only two defeats across 14 home league matches this season, taking six wins and six draws.
  2. Mirassol have kept zero clean sheets in 14 away fixtures, conceding 22 goals on the road.
  3. Bahia have failed to score in just one of their 14 home league games, averaging 1.6 goals per match.
  4. Mirassol have won just two of their 14 away matches in Serie A this season.
  5. All three previous head-to-head meetings between these clubs have seen both teams find the net, producing an average of 3.67 total goals.
Availability

Team news

Bahia

  • Leo VieiraKnee Injury
  • R. GomezYellow Cards
  • Jean LucasYellow Cards

Mirassol

  • NeguebaKnee Injury
  • Jose AldoMuscle Injury
  • Andre LuisYellow Cards
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Bahia at homeMirassol away
16
Played
15
7-6-3
W-D-L
2-4-9
1.4
Scored /game
0.9
1.1
Conceded /game
1.5
31%
Clean sheets
0%
13%
Failed to score
40%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
20%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
20%

Combined scoring rate: 2.3 goals per game (Bahia at home plus Mirassol away).

Players

Key players this season

Bahia

  • Luciano Juba10G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
4CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)31+451
5FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)31+1051
6Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+750
7BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+549
8SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+245
9Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+142
10RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+341
11BotafogoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31-439
12Coritiba31-1139
13Vitoria31-1137
14Mirassol31-836
15Vasco DA Gama30-735
16Corinthians31-733
17InternacionalRelegation - Serie B31-732
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
1
Bahia
1
Draws
1
Mirassol

the last 3 meetings are split 1-1 with 1 drawn.

  • 2026-04-11Mirassol1-2Bahia
  • 2025-08-31Mirassol5-1Bahia
  • 2025-04-13Bahia1-1Mirassol
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Bahia or Draw
77%
Confidence

Bahia have maintained strong resilience at home, losing only two of their 14 Serie A matches in front of their supporters and averaging 1.6 goals scored per game. Mirassol have struggled defensively on the road, failing to keep a clean sheet in all 14 away fixtures and losing eight times. Although Mirassol have shown competitive form recently, Bahia have failed to score in just one home game this campaign, giving them a significant advantage to secure at least a share of the points.

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Published October 10, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.