BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 3
Venue
Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Referee
Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
Form

Recent form

Alaves
18Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-1D-4L · -4 goal difference

Villarreal
47Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Alaves or Draw

BetGenius backs Alaves or Draw (Double Chance) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

75%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Alaves welcome Villarreal to the Mendizorrotza for matchday three of the La Liga campaign, with both sides looking to preserve their unbeaten starts to the season. The hosts sit fourth in the standings with four points from two matches, having followed up an emphatic 3-0 home victory over Getafe with a 1-1 draw on the road against Rayo Vallecano. M. Díaz has been central to Alaves' early attacking output, already tallying two goals and two assists.

Villarreal enter this fixture in ninth place following consecutive high-scoring 2-2 draws away from home against Racing Santander and Atletico Madrid. While their attack has produced four goals across two away fixtures, their defensive unit has conceded at an average rate of 2.0 goals per game. The Yellow Submarine will also be without the suspended A. Diatta and W. Kambwala.

Historical trends at this venue strongly favor the hosts, with Alaves boasting an unbeaten home head-to-head record in their last five meetings against Villarreal (three wins, two draws). Given Villarreal's open style of play and Alaves' solid home form, this matchup shapes up as a competitive, goal-friendly encounter.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Alaves are unbeaten across their first two league fixtures (1W, 1D) and won their sole home game 3-0 against Getafe.
  2. Villarreal have recorded consecutive 2-2 away draws in La Liga, scoring and conceding four goals across those two games.
  3. Alaves hold an unbeaten record in their last five home head-to-head meetings with Villarreal (3 wins, 2 draws).
  4. Both teams have scored in 80% of the last 10 head-to-head encounters between the two clubs.
  5. Villarreal are missing A. Diatta through suspension and W. Kambwala due to transfer negotiations.
Availability

Team news

Alaves

  • M. RodriguezAnkle Injury
  • F. GarcesSuspended

Villarreal

  • N. PepeEye injury
  • C. RomeroInjury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Alaves at homeVillarreal away
5
Played
5
3-0-2
W-D-L
1-2-2
2
Scored /game
1.4
1
Conceded /game
1.4
40%
Clean sheets
0%
20%
Failed to score
40%
60%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 3.4 goals per game (Alaves at home plus Villarreal away).

Players

Key players this season

Alaves

  • M. Díaz4A

Villarreal

  • Alberto Moleiro3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
4Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+219
5Real SociedadPromotion - Europa League (League phase)9016
6SevillaPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)9-214
7Alaves10+312
8Celta Vigo9+311
9Deportivo La Coruna9+111
10Osasuna9-811
11Levante9-210
12Villarreal909
13Athletic Club8-19
14Rayo Vallecano8-59
15Getafe9-69
History

Head-to-head

3
Alaves
3
Draws
4
Villarreal

Villarreal have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.1 goals a game, both teams scored in 80% of them.

  • 2026-03-13Alaves1-1Villarreal
  • 2026-01-10Villarreal3-1Alaves
  • 2025-03-08Alaves1-0Villarreal
  • 2024-11-09Villarreal3-0Alaves
  • 2024-02-10Alaves1-1Villarreal
BetGenius

Our record in La Liga

74%90 won from 122 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

3 published markets

Combo BetWON
Double Chance
Alaves or Draw
75%
Confidence

Alaves have started the season strongly with four points from two matches (1W, 1D) and won their only home game 3-0. Furthermore, in the last five head-to-head encounters hosted by Alaves, the home side has remained undefeated against Villarreal with three wins and two draws. With Villarreal drawing both of their opening league fixtures, backing Alaves to win or draw is well-supported.

FeaturedLOST
Combo Bet
BTTS Yes + Alaves or Draw
72%
Both must land · no better than

Yes — 72% confidence

Both teams have scored in 100% of their league matches this season, with Villarreal participating in back-to-back 2-2 draws and Alaves scoring four goals across two matches. Historically, both teams have found the net in 80% (8 of 10) of their previous head-to-head meetings, which average 3.1 goals per match.

Alaves or Draw — 75% confidence

Alaves have started the season strongly with four points from two matches (1W, 1D) and won their only home game 3-0. Furthermore, in the last five head-to-head encounters hosted by Alaves, the home side has remained undefeated against Villarreal with three wins and two draws. With Villarreal drawing both of their opening league fixtures, backing Alaves to win or draw is well-supported.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (both teams to score and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Combo BetLOST
Both Teams to Score
Yes
72%
Confidence

Both teams have scored in 100% of their league matches this season, with Villarreal participating in back-to-back 2-2 draws and Alaves scoring four goals across two matches. Historically, both teams have found the net in 80% (8 of 10) of their previous head-to-head meetings, which average 3.1 goals per match.

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Published August 27, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.