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Tue 15 Sept · 19:00

Alaves vs Valencia prediction

Round
Regular Season - 6
Venue
Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Referee
Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
Form

Recent form

Alaves
18Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-1D-4L · -4 goal difference

Valencia
43Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-2D-2L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Team Total Goals
Alaves Over 1.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Alaves Over 1.5 Goals (Team Total Goals) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Alaves welcome Valencia to Mendizorrotza in round six of La Liga with the two teams experiencing contrasting starts to the campaign. The home side occupy third place in the table after collecting ten points and maintaining an unbeaten record across their opening matches. Their home form has been particularly strong, delivering three victories from three matches with nine goals scored and only two conceded.

Valencia travel to the Basque country rooted to the bottom of the standings in 20th place with a single point. Los Che have suffered three defeats in four league matches, scoring only once across those fixtures while conceding nine goals. Compounding their early difficulties is a substantial list of unavailabilities, leaving multiple regular contributors sidelined for this trip.

Head-to-head history at this ground also leans towards the hosts, who have recorded three wins and a draw in their four home meetings against Valencia in the recorded sample. With Alaves functioning effectively in attack behind L. Boyé and M. Díaz, the dynamics favor the home side maintaining their momentum against an opponent looking for stability.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Alaves have a perfect home record this season with three wins from three matches and a plus-seven goal difference.
  2. Valencia sit bottom of the table with one point from four matches and have failed to score in three league outings.
  3. Valencia have eight confirmed injuries heading into the match, including key personnel in defense and attack.
  4. L. Boyé and M. Díaz have combined for seven goals and three assists in Alaves' strong attacking opening.
  5. Alaves have never lost to Valencia at Mendizorrotza in the available head-to-head sample, winning three of four meetings.
Availability

Team news

Alaves

  • M. RodriguezAnkle Injury
  • F. GarcesSuspended

Valencia

  • S. CanosKnee Injury
  • J. CopeteKnee Injury
  • D. FoulquierKnee Injury
  • D. LopezKnee Injury
  • U. SadiqMuscle Injury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Alaves at homeValencia away
5
Played
4
3-0-2
W-D-L
1-1-2
2
Scored /game
1
1
Conceded /game
1.5
40%
Clean sheets
—
20%
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 3 goals per game (Alaves at home plus Valencia away).

Players

Key players this season

Alaves

  • M. Díaz4A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
4Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+219
5Real SociedadPromotion - Europa League (League phase)9016
6SevillaPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)9-214
7Alaves10+312
8Celta Vigo9+311
9Deportivo La Coruna9+111
10Osasuna9-811
16Espanyol9-18
17Racing Santander9-128
18ElcheRelegation - LaLiga29-67
19ValenciaRelegation - LaLiga29-96
20MalagaRelegation - LaLiga210-125
History

Head-to-head

5
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Valencia

Alaves have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-03-08Valencia3-2Alaves
  • 2025-10-20Alaves0-0Valencia
  • 2025-05-14Alaves1-0Valencia
  • 2024-12-22Valencia2-2Alaves
  • 2024-07-24Valencia0-1Alaves
BetGenius

Our record in La Liga

74%90 won from 122 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

3 published markets

FeaturedLOST
Team Total Goals
Alaves Over 1.5 Goals
68%
Confidence

Alaves have maintained an average of 3.0 goals per match at home this season, scoring three against Getafe and five against Osasuna. Attackers L. Boyé with four goals and M. Díaz with three goals and three assists face a Valencia defense that has conceded nine goals in four league games, including three in their sole away match against Deportivo La Coruna.

GeniusLOST
Double Chance
Alaves or Draw
78%
Confidence

Alaves have won all three of their home fixtures this season, scoring nine times and conceding only twice. In contrast, Valencia have earned one point from four matches and enter this fixture missing eight players through injury, including M. Diakhaby, D. Foulquier, and U. Sadiq. Alaves are also unbeaten in their four home meetings against Valencia in the head-to-head record with three wins and one draw.

FeaturedWON
Both Teams to Score
No
74%
Confidence

Valencia have struggled for offensive output, scoring only one goal across four league games and failing to score in three of them. Alaves have kept clean sheets in two of their three home outings, securing shutout victories over Villarreal and Getafe. Additionally, both teams have scored in only 30 percent of the ten most recent meetings between these sides.

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Published September 14, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.