Everton

Arsenal have been flawless at the Emirates this season, recording three victories from three league matches while averaging 2.3 goals scored per home fixture. Everton have proved difficult to break down on the road with three draws from three away trips, but their modest attacking output of one goal per away match leaves them vulnerable against top-tier opposition. Head-to-head history strongly favours the home side, with Arsenal winning seven of the last ten meetings overall and five of the last six at the Emirates. Although key personnel absences require defensive caution, Arsenal's overall defensive record of 0.7 goals conceded per game provides a dependable foundation to secure the win, with past meetings pointing towards a low-scoring affair where seven of the last ten matches produced under 2.5 goals.

Everton have built a reliable platform this season, remaining unbeaten through six league fixtures with two wins and four draws. At home, they have taken seven points from a possible nine while conceding only twice in three matches. Chelsea, despite the attacking threat of Joao Pedro and Morgan Rogers, have conceded an average of 2.33 goals per match on the road and have zero clean sheets across all competitions this season. Furthermore, Everton have won three of their last five home matches against Chelsea, including a 3-0 victory in their most recent encounter in March 2026. Given Everton's resilience and Chelsea's road woes, backing Everton to either win or draw offers the strongest statistical foundation.

Backing over 1.5 goals aligns with Chelsea's open style of play and their inability to record a clean sheet in six league matches. Chelsea have conceded 2.2 goals per game overall and 2.3 on their travels, while remaining dangerous going forward through Joao Pedro and M. Rogers. Everton have scored in all three of their home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals at home. Although Chelsea's matches have frequently seen higher totals, Everton's defensive organisation, which has yielded two 1-0 victories at home and conceded only 0.8 goals per match, presents substantial resistance to reaching three goals. In addition, seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these clubs finished with two or fewer goals, averaging 2.2 goals per game. Consequently, the over 1.5 line is well supported by Chelsea's leaky defence and Everton's regular home scoring, while the case for over 2.5 remains curtailed by Everton's low-scoring tendencies and historical head-to-head patterns.

Under 2.5 Goals — 78% confidence

Both clubs have prioritized defensive solidity in the early stages of the campaign. Hull City have conceded zero goals across their two home fixtures while averaging only one goal scored per match in their 5-4-1 shape. Everton's two away outings have produced just two goals combined, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Furthermore, both teams have recorded three clean sheets from their opening five league matches, making a game with fewer than three total goals the most probable scenario.

Everton or Draw — 75% confidence

Everton remain undefeated through five league matches, having picked up two victories and three draws while conceding only three goals overall. By contrast, Hull City are dealing with eleven confirmed absences across their squad, including J. Butland, M. Targett, E. Matazo, H. Morita, and T. Iroegbunam. Backing Everton to avoid defeat covers both a narrow away victory and another stalemate, reflecting their defensive reliability against a badly depleted Hull squad.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Everton remain undefeated through five league matches, having picked up two victories and three draws while conceding only three goals overall. By contrast, Hull City are dealing with eleven confirmed absences across their squad, including J. Butland, M. Targett, E. Matazo, H. Morita, and T. Iroegbunam. Backing Everton to avoid defeat covers both a narrow away victory and another stalemate, reflecting their defensive reliability against a badly depleted Hull squad.

Both clubs have prioritized defensive solidity in the early stages of the campaign. Hull City have conceded zero goals across their two home fixtures while averaging only one goal scored per match in their 5-4-1 shape. Everton's two away outings have produced just two goals combined, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Furthermore, both teams have recorded three clean sheets from their opening five league matches, making a game with fewer than three total goals the most probable scenario.

Everton enter this fixture unbeaten in the Premier League with one victory and three draws, alongside two clean sheets in four matches. At home, they have taken four points from two matches while scoring four goals. Ipswich have suffered two defeats in four matches and have conceded ten goals in total, including seven across two away trips. With Ipswich yet to register a clean sheet and Everton holding an unbeaten record across both recent meetings between the teams, backing Everton to win or draw covers the most probable outcomes.

Everton have built steady momentum, remaining unbeaten in their last five competitive matches with two wins and three draws. In contrast, Wolves have conceded six goals in their last two away fixtures and are missing several defensive players including Y. Mosquera and K. Trippier. Backing Everton to win or draw covers the most probable match outcomes based on recent form and squad depth.

Tottenham have yet to score a goal in the Premier League this season across three matches, recording one draw and two losses while conceding five goals. They also enter this fixture without key creative options such as James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski due to injury. In contrast, Everton are unbeaten in league action with one win and two draws, scoring five goals and conceding three. Given the contrasting form lines and Tottenham's offensive drought, Everton have a strong opportunity to take at least a point away from home.

Everton have made an undefeated start to the league season with a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, allowing just one goal across two fixtures. Manchester United struggled on their sole away trip of the campaign, losing 2-0 against Hull City, and must navigate a substantial injury list featuring M. de Ligt, M. Mount, M. Ugarte, C. Baleba, A. Diallo, and T. Heaton. Everton's defensive resilience and home form make them well placed to secure at least a draw.

Bournemouth have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning seven of the last ten matches against Everton, including three of four played at home. While Everton enjoyed a positive start with their 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, Bournemouth's resilient showing at the Etihad suggests they are capable of securing at least a point on home turf.

Everton have demonstrated strong recent form with three victories and a draw from their last five games, whereas Preston have struggled defensively, losing four of their last five and conceding ten goals across that stretch. A double chance on the visitors provides a robust and well-hedged projection for this cup fixture.