Alcochetense

Alcochetense have proven tough to break down on their own ground, having secured an 8-0 victory over Fayal and a 2-0 win against CF Benfica in cup action, alongside a 1-1 draw with Imortal Albufeira. With three clean sheets across their last five outings in all competitions, they carry defensive solidity into this home tie. Maritimo, by comparison, have struggled for defensive stability, conceding eleven goals and failing to keep a clean sheet across five consecutive winless matches against FC Porto, Gil Vicente, Moreirense, Benfica, and Arouca. Backing Alcochetense to win or draw covers two plausible outcomes while acknowledging Maritimo's recent defensive vulnerabilities and winless run.

Alcochetense have an 8‑0 home win and a higher average goal tally than Benfica, while both sides have kept clean sheets in their sole cup games. The home side’s superior attacking record and venue give them a clear edge, but the limited sample size means a draw cannot be ruled out. The expected total goals exceed 2.5, supported by both teams’ recent scoring levels.

Alcochetense have scored in all five of their recent fixtures, netting eight goals across that stretch and demonstrating regular match sharpness. In contrast, Fayal have failed to score across their recorded cup outings, conceding ten goals in three matches including a 5-0 loss to CD Olivais e Moscavide. That consistent disparity in competitive output makes a home victory the most probable outcome.