Santos have established a reliable record in recent home meetings with Bahia, remaining unbeaten across their past four home head-to-head encounters with one victory and three draws. While Bahia hold a four-point cushion over Santos in the standings, their recent momentum has slowed considerably with three defeats in four outings, including back-to-back away losses. Bahia will also miss suspended midfielders Jean Lucas and R. Gomez. Backing Santos to take at least a point reflects both Bahia's recent away vulnerabilities and Santos's steady form, supported by an attack that has scored twice in four of their last five games.
- Round
- Regular Season - 32
- Venue
- Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
- Referee
- Savio Pereira Sampaio
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +2 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -3 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Santos or Draw (Double Chance) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
Santos welcome Bahia to the Vila Belmiro in round 32 of Serie A, with four points separating the two sides in the upper half of the table. Bahia sit seventh with 49 points, while Santos occupy eighth place on 45 points, making this meeting significant in the race for continental qualification.
Santos enter this fixture with confidence after securing a 2-1 away victory over Fluminense, marking their third win in five matches. The Peixe have been dependable in front of goal, scoring two goals in four of their last five encounters, spear-headed by Gabriel Barbosa who has registered 15 league goals.
Bahia have hit a rough patch of form, dropping three of their previous four matches, including a 3-0 home defeat against Flamengo and consecutive road losses to Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense. Their task is further complicated by disciplinary absences, leaving them to manage tough away conditions without multiple regular starters.
Key factors
- Santos are undefeated in their previous four home meetings against Bahia, recording one win and three draws.
- Bahia have lost three of their last four Serie A matches, including consecutive away defeats to Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras.
- Bahia will be missing suspended regulars Jean Lucas and R. Gomez due to accumulated yellow cards.
- Santos have scored two goals in four of their last five matches, led by Gabriel Barbosa with 15 league goals.
- Each of Santos's last five matches in Serie A has featured three or more total goals.
Team news
Santos
- Arthur MeloMuscle Injury
- Gabriel BrazaoShoulder Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- Lucas VerissimoInjury
- G. EscobarInactive
Bahia
- Leo VieiraKnee Injury
- R. GomezYellow Cards
- Jean LucasYellow Cards
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 2.9 goals per game (Santos at home plus Bahia away).
Key players this season
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa15G
Bahia
- Luciano Juba10G
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 31 | +4 | 51 |
| 5 | FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 | SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 | RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 | BotafogoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | -4 | 39 |
Head-to-head
- 2
- Santos
- 5
- Draws
- 3
- Bahia
Bahia have won 3 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.3 goals a game.
- 2026-04-25Bahia2-2Santos
- 2025-08-24Bahia2-0Santos
- 2025-04-06Santos2-2Bahia
- 2023-09-18Bahia1-2Santos
- 2023-05-31Bahia1-1Santos
Our record in Serie A
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.2 published markets
Santos fixtures are among the highest-scoring in Serie A, generating 94 total goals across 31 rounds for an average of 3.03 goals per match. Each of Santos's last five matches has produced three or more goals, with scorelines of 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-1, and 2-1. They have failed to score in only three of their 31 matches this season, powered by Gabriel Barbosa's 15 goals. Bahia's away matches similarly see high output, averaging 2.87 total goals with 21 scored and 22 conceded in 15 trips. Bahia are also without suspended central midfielders Jean Lucas and R. Gomez, which weakens their defensive resistance against an aggressive Santos attack. With the last two Serie A encounters between these two clubs both ending in 2-2 draws, the evidence materially supports clearing the 2.5 goal mark rather than stopping at two.
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
- Over 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 predictions · How goals markets settle · Over 2.5 record
Other Serie A predictions
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Published October 23, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

