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Thu 22 Oct · 01:30

Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction

Follow PalmeirasFollow FluminenseFollow this match
Round
Semi-finals
Venue
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Referee
Esteban Ostojich

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Palmeiras
70Strong

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +6 goal difference

Fluminense
44Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Palmeiras or Draw

BetGenius backs Palmeiras or Draw (Double Chance) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

70%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Palmeiras arrive at home in strong recent form, winning four of their last five matches and scoring 9 goals while conceding only one. Their defence has kept clean sheets in three of the last ten games and they have a solid goal‑scoring record of 1.6 per match. Fluminense, by contrast, have lost three of their last five, scoring just 9 and conceding 7 in the same period, and are missing several key players through injury and suspension. Head‑to‑head the sides are evenly matched over ten meetings, but Palmeiras have won the most recent Libertadores encounter 2‑1 and hold a slight edge in overall goals for and against. The semi‑final stakes add pressure, but the current data favours a Palmeiras advantage, especially at home.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Palmeiras have won four of their last five matches, scoring 9 and conceding 1
  2. Fluminense have lost three of their last five, scoring 9 and conceding 7
  3. Palmeiras keep a better defensive record (0.9 goals against per game vs 1.1 for Fluminense)
  4. Fluminense are missing several starters through injury and suspension
  5. Recent head‑to‑head: Palmeiras won the latest Libertadores tie 2‑1
Availability

Team news

Palmeiras

  • JefteKnee Injury
  • Andreas PereiraRed Card
  • J. PiquerezYellow Cards
  • Vitor RoqueInactive

Fluminense

  • AlissonHip Injury
  • John KennedyKnee Injury
  • Matheus ReisKnee Injury
  • J. SavarinoYellow Cards
  • MartinelliInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Palmeiras at homeFluminense away
15
Played
15
11-3-1
W-D-L
3-6-6
1.9
Scored /game
1.3
0.7
Conceded /game
1.5
40%
Clean sheets
7%
7%
Failed to score
20%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 3.2 goals per game (Palmeiras at home plus Fluminense away).

Players

Key players this season

Palmeiras

  • J. López4G · 4A
  • J. Arias3G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

History

Head-to-head

Full record →
4
Palmeiras
1
Draws
5
Fluminense

Fluminense have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game.

  • 2026-10-22Palmeiras0-1Fluminense
  • 2026-10-15Fluminense1-2Palmeiras
  • 2026-08-15Fluminense3-2Palmeiras
  • 2026-02-26Palmeiras2-1Fluminense
  • 2025-11-23Palmeiras0-0Fluminense
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Palmeiras or Draw
70%
Confidence

Palmeiras’ recent winning streak, better defensive record and home advantage give them a solid chance to avoid defeat. Fluminense’s recent losses and player absences increase the likelihood of a draw at worst. The combined probability of a home win or a draw is estimated around 70 %, fitting a conservative double‑chance pick. Across the last ten head‑to‑head matches the average total goals is 2.2 and only half have gone over 2.5, while both teams’ current scoring averages (1.6 and 1.2) suggest the upcoming game will stay under the 2.5‑goal threshold.

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Published October 20, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.