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Sat 17 Oct · 17:30

Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction

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Round: Regular Season - 7
Venue: St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Referee: Jarred Gillett

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Newcastle

32Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -5 goal difference

Aston Villa

88Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-1D-0L · +11 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance

Newcastle or Draw

BetGenius backs Newcastle or Draw (Double Chance) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

75%

Confidence

Strong

Preview

Match preview

Newcastle welcome Aston Villa to St James' Park for matchday seven of the Premier League season, with both sides seeking greater stability after mixed starts to their domestic campaigns. The Magpies sit eleventh with eight points from six matches, scoring ten goals while conceding thirteen. At home, Newcastle remain unbeaten with one victory and two draws, averaging two goals scored per match.

Aston Villa travel north in sixteenth position on five points from their opening six league fixtures, having registered one win, two draws, and three defeats. While their domestic league form has been patchy with eleven goals conceded, they have shown attacking punch on their travels across competitions, winning three of their recent away fixtures including trips to Tottenham, Sevilla, and Coventry.

Both squads are managing a substantial list of fitness concerns, with Newcastle missing players like Anthony Elanga, Tino Livramento, and Jacob Ramsey, while Villa are without Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen, and Ross Barkley. With both defensive records showing vulnerability, an open encounter is in prospect.

Analysis

Key factors

Newcastle remain undefeated at home in the Premier League this season with one win and two draws.
Aston Villa have managed just one win from their first six Premier League games and concede an average of two goals per away match.
Newcastle's league fixtures have produced 23 total goals in six games, averaging nearly four goals per match.
Eight of the last ten head-to-head encounters between Newcastle and Aston Villa have featured three or more goals.
Both teams face multiple absences, with Newcastle missing Elanga and Livramento, and Villa without Onana and Maatsen.

Availability

Team news

Newcastle

E. JaouenMuscle Injury
V. LivramentoKnee Injury
A. ElangaKnee Injury
J. RamseyThigh Injury

Aston Villa

A. OnanaKnee Injury
M. RuggeriMuscle Injury
A. Wan-BissakaMuscle Injury
J. ManzambiCalf Injury

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Newcastle at homeAston Villa away

Played

1-2-1

W-D-L

2-1-1

1.5

Scored /game

1.5

Conceded /game

1.5

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

60%

BTTS (last 5)

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

80%

Combined scoring rate: 2.5 goals per game (Newcastle at home plus Aston Villa away).

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
8	Everton	7	+1	10
9	Ipswich	8	-4	10
10	Hull City	7	+1	9
11	Newcastle	7	-4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	-4	8
13	Manchester United	7	0	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	-8	7
15	Bournemouth	7	-4	6

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

4
Newcastle: 2
Draws: 4
Aston Villa

the last 10 meetings are split 4-4 with 2 drawn, averaging 3.4 goals a game, 70% went over 2.5.

2026-10-17Newcastle0-1Aston Villa
2026-02-14Aston Villa1-3Newcastle
2026-01-25Newcastle0-2Aston Villa
2025-08-16Aston Villa0-0Newcastle
2025-04-19Aston Villa4-1Newcastle

BetGenius

Our record in Premier League

67%74 won from 110 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST

Double Chance

Newcastle or Draw

75%

Confidence

Newcastle have been reliable at St James' Park this season, remaining unbeaten through three home league fixtures with one win and two draws while averaging two goals scored per game. Aston Villa have struggled for consistency in league play, winning only one of their six Premier League matches and conceding an average of two goals per away match. Head-to-head history also tilts toward Newcastle, who have won five of the last ten meetings overall and three of the last five at home. Given both sides' defensive frailties and injury lists, backing Newcastle to secure at least a point offers strong protection against a shared scoreline.

Explore

Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Team news

Newcastle

Aston Villa

Statistical comparison

Table context

Head-to-head

Our record in Premier League

1 published market

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