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Sat 12 Sept · 20:00

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama prediction

Follow GremioFollow Vasco DA GamaFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 27
Venue
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Referee
Raphael Claus, Brazil

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Gremio
39Poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-3D-2L · -2 goal difference

Vasco DA Gama
40Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Gremio or Draw

BetGenius backs Gremio or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Gremio welcome Vasco DA Gama to the Arena do Gremio for round 27 of Serie A in a fixture carrying significant weight in the bottom half of the standings. Gremio sit 15th on 28 points, aiming to build a cushion away from the relegation places. Their home record has been their main source of stability this season, having won seven and drawn three of their 12 league matches on familiar turf.

Vasco DA Gama enter the matchday in 17th position on 25 points, currently occupying a relegation spot. While they have secured positive home results recently, their travels remain a primary concern, as they have yet to record an away victory in 12 league attempts this campaign, managing five draws and seven defeats.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Gremio have collected seven wins and three draws from 12 home matches in Serie A, suffering only two defeats.
  2. Vasco DA Gama are winless away from home in the league this season, holding a record of zero wins, five draws, and seven losses.
  3. Gremio have won each of their last five home meetings against Vasco DA Gama.
  4. Vasco DA Gama have conceded 22 goals across 12 away league fixtures, averaging 1.8 goals conceded per away match.
  5. Vasco DA Gama arrive with five squad members sidelined through injury, including Jair, Cuiabano, and Adson.
Availability

Team news

Gremio

  • WallaceYellow Cards
  • J. CabralInactive
  • Matheus NascimentoInactive

Team news last updated Oct 18 (6 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Vasco DA Gama

  • Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
  • Cauan BarrosInactive
  • C. CuestaInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Gremio at homeVasco DA Gama away
15
Played
15
7-5-3
W-D-L
2-5-8
1.5
Scored /game
1
1.1
Conceded /game
1.7
27%
Clean sheets
7%
20%
Failed to score
33%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 2.5 goals per game (Gremio at home plus Vasco DA Gama away).

Players

Key players this season

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius11G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
12Coritiba31-1139
13Vitoria31-1137
14Mirassol31-836
15Vasco DA Gama30-735
16Corinthians31-733
17InternacionalRelegation - Serie B31-732
18GremioRelegation - Serie B31-1031
19RemoRelegation - Serie B31-1526
20Chapecoense-scRelegation - Serie B30-3218
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
5
Gremio
2
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama

Gremio have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.0 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-03-22Vasco DA Gama2-1Gremio
  • 2025-11-20Gremio2-0Vasco DA Gama
  • 2025-07-19Vasco DA Gama1-1Gremio
  • 2024-07-28Gremio1-0Vasco DA Gama
  • 2024-04-14Vasco DA Gama2-1Gremio
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Gremio or Draw
78%
Confidence

Gremio have built a reliable home platform, securing seven wins and three draws from 12 league fixtures on their own ground while scoring 21 goals. Vasco DA Gama have struggled consistently on the road, remaining winless away from home in Serie A this season with seven losses and five draws from 12 outings. In addition, Gremio have won all five previous home head-to-head encounters against Vasco in the sample, making the home double chance strongly supported by the data.

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Published September 11, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.