Palmeiras or Draw — 74% confidence
Palmeiras have suffered only two defeats in 14 away league matches this season, compiling seven wins and five draws on the road. Sitting second in the standings with 56 points and having conceded just 12 away goals all season, they hold a significant quality advantage over 16th-placed Gremio. Palmeiras have also won seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between the clubs. While Gremio are capable at home with seven wins in 13 matches, Palmeiras possess sufficient defensive organisation and counter-attacking quality to avoid defeat in Porto Alegre.
Under 2.5 Goals — 64% confidence
Palmeiras have been extremely disciplined defensively, conceding an average of only 0.8 goals per game overall and 0.9 on the road, with six away clean sheets to their name. Their recent domestic away fixtures include consecutive 0-0 stalemates against Santos and Botafogo. With Gremio needing to be cautious to avoid slipping into the relegation zone and missing suspended forward Pedro Gabriel, chances may be limited in a cagey, high-stakes encounter.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.