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Sun 18 Oct · 20:00

Fluminense vs Santos prediction

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Round
Regular Season - 31
Venue
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee
Ramon Abatti

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Fluminense
44Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · +2 goal difference

Santos
63Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Fluminense or Draw

BetGenius backs Fluminense or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

76%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Fluminense return to home territory looking to rebound from successive league defeats against title challengers Flamengo and Palmeiras. Despite those recent setbacks against elite opposition, the Rio de Janeiro club holds an imposing record at home this season, collecting eleven wins and three draws from fifteen fixtures while conceding just fourteen goals. Holding fourth position with fifty-one points, they remain firmly in the Copa Libertadores group stage places.

Santos make the trip sitting eighth in the table on forty-two points, having recorded a mixed run of two wins, one draw, and two losses across their last five matches. While Santos have shown resilience on the road with five away victories, their defensive vulnerabilities remain apparent, having conceded twenty-five goals in fifteen away trips.

Head-to-head encounters heavily tilt toward the hosts, with Fluminense unbeaten across four home meetings in the sample and victorious in their previous clash earlier in the campaign. With both squads managing notable absences, Fluminense's home resilience positions them favorably to take something from this contest.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Fluminense have lost only once in fifteen home league matches this season, winning eleven times.
  2. Santos have conceded twenty-five goals across fifteen away league matches, averaging 1.7 goals against per game on the road.
  3. Fluminense are undefeated in their last four home encounters against Santos, winning three and drawing one.
  4. Seven of the previous ten meetings between the two sides have produced under 2.5 goals, with an overall series average of 1.9 goals per match.
  5. Both teams face squad absences, with Fluminense missing German Cano, John Kennedy, and Guilherme Arana, while Santos are without Willian Arao and Arthur Melo.
Availability

Team news

Fluminense

  • AlissonHip Injury
  • John KennedyKnee Injury
  • Matheus ReisKnee Injury
  • J. SavarinoYellow Cards
  • MartinelliInactive

Santos

  • Arthur MeloMuscle Injury
  • Gabriel BrazaoShoulder Injury
  • Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
  • Lucas VerissimoInjury
  • G. EscobarInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Fluminense at homeSantos away
16
Played
16
11-3-2
W-D-L
6-4-6
1.8
Scored /game
1.6
1
Conceded /game
1.6
31%
Clean sheets
19%
6%
Failed to score
6%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
100%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
100%

Combined scoring rate: 3.4 goals per game (Fluminense at home plus Santos away).

Players

Key players this season

Fluminense

  • L. Acosta5A

Santos

  • Gabriel Barbosa15G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
2PalmeirasPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)31+3266
3Atletico ParanaensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)31+1253
4CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)31+451
5FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)31+1051
6Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+750
7BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+549
8SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+245
9Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+142
10RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+341
11BotafogoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31-439
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
5
Fluminense
3
Draws
2
Santos

Fluminense have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.0 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-10-18Fluminense1-2Santos
  • 2026-04-19Santos2-3Fluminense
  • 2025-08-31Santos0-0Fluminense
  • 2025-04-13Fluminense1-0Santos
  • 2023-11-29Santos0-3Fluminense
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Fluminense or Draw
76%
Confidence

Fluminense have suffered only one defeat in fifteen home league matches this season, winning eleven and drawing three. Their defensive solidity at home, where they concede an average of only 0.9 goals per game, provides a reliable foundation. Santos have lost six of their fifteen road matches and concede an average of 1.7 goals away from home. Historical meetings in Rio also favor the hosts, who boast three wins and one draw in the last four home head-to-head fixtures. Although Fluminense are missing attacking options in German Cano and John Kennedy, the double chance covers both the home victory and the draw while reflecting the tight defensive profile typical of this matchup, where seven of the last ten meetings stayed under 2.5 goals.

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Published October 17, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.